The exports market worsened even more in October. As per the latest ABN Amro India Manufacturing PMI, the new export orders index slipped below 50, indicating that external demand shrunk as a number of India’s key export destinations are on the verge of recession. While an easing of commodity prices, especially crude oil, will reduce the imports bill, a sharp slowdown in exports could still keep the trade deficit close to $10 billion a month.
This week, the rupee may continue to hold on to its gains, on the back of some support from the equity market and the latest move by the RBI on dollar liquidity. The market will closely watch the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data release for September on Wednesday. In August, the y-o-y percentage growth in the IIP had slipped to a decade low of 1.3%. However, performance in September could have been better, as suggested by a relatively better growth in output of the six infrastructure sectors during that month.
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